Saturday 21st February 2015

The first selections on the blog - exciting times - a nice winner would boost the confidence and be a nice comfort zone for the betting bank!!

Eider Chase - 2.55 Newcastle

Reviewing this race from a trends perspective the key stat for me is the age of the winner together with the state of the ground.  It appears the older horses are more suited when it's heavy ground.  Of course the ground tomorrow is good to soft so I'm swayed towards the younger horses who are likely to have more toe come the closing stages (over 4m 1f!!)

My main pick is Knockanrawley - he's a young stayer on the upgrade (won lto), and I think he can handle the 7lbs rise in the weights.  His trainer is in flying form too.

I'm going to save on Beforeall.  He looked like he was just hitting form at Sandown lto after two disappointing efforts this season.  He's only 2lbs above his last winning mark and his jockey's 5lbs claim is a handy allowance.  My main concern is all his winning form has been in smaller fields versus what he encounters tomorrow (18 run).

Betbright Chase - 3.45 Kempton

I've worked this race down to a shortlist of three:

 - Tap Night - well handicapped, classy individual, who's trainer is in fine form as evidenced by Lie Forrit at Haydock last week.  He has the right man onboard if he shows any tendency to duck the issue and the 3m trip should be ok.

- Le Reve - has a cracking record going right handed, on the upgrade and has just about the ideal profile for this race.

- Ballinvarrig - again seems to favour going right handed.  Won over c+d earlier in the season and was noted staying on lto over 2m5f at Ascot.  His trainer's form had a slight lull around the time of the Ascot run but he is back amongst the winners again recently.

I'm loathe to bet three in a race but ultimately it's all about treating each race individually to find a profitable strategy.  I think in this case it's worthwhile betting all three (maybe even the tricast!!).

Selections Summary

2.55 Newcastle
Knockanrawley - 0.75pts win 12/1 hills (4th)
Beforeall - 0.25pts each way 16/1 skybet (10th)

3.45 Kempton
Tap Night - 0.5pts win 10/1 hills (UR)
Le Reve - 0.25pts win 9/1 hills (2nd)
Ballinvarrig - 0.25pts win 16/1 lads (8th)