No joy with the various selections yesterday.
First up was the Eider Chase and Knockanrawley ran a fine race to finish 4th. I thought a mile out he was going to kick on and take the race by the scruff of the neck but ultimately he didn't have the staying power of Millborough and Woodford County (with Summery Justice staying on to trouble the winner). Knockanrawley is only a 7yo with 11 races to date in his career. It would be no surprise to see him improve with another summer on his back...one to keep an eye on.
Beforeall ran ok, eventually finishing 10th. He travelled well but I think he is better suited to smaller fields. I imagine his mark will be dropped 2/3lbs after yesterday's run and he's one to note in the next couple of months.
The Betbright Chase was won very impressively by Rocky Creek. He was handicapped to run a big race and he most certainly did. Onto the Grand National for him.
Tap Night got as far as the third before unseating R Johnson. Ballinvarrig ran a solid race but probably found yesterday a tad competitive off a mark of 133. No complaints with the run of Le Reve, he stayed on really well but Rocky Creek was in a different league to the others. I could see Le Reve back at Sandown for the Whitbread.
I had a few other bets yesterday but only Comeonginger was successful. Until Midnight, Skidby Mill & Galway Jack all ran decent races but all in all a losing day.
With Cheltenham on the horizon and most of the key "trials" now run I'm going to spend this week analysing some of my favourite festival races. I'm a sucker for the established handicaps but if there's one lucky race for me it's the RSA Chase. A race often won by late maturing types who have yet to show their full hand that find improvement for the stamina and jumping test that is the RSA Chase.
Sunday, 22 February 2015
Friday, 20 February 2015
Saturday 21st February 2015
The first selections on the blog - exciting times - a nice winner would boost the confidence and be a nice comfort zone for the betting bank!!
Eider Chase - 2.55 Newcastle
Reviewing this race from a trends perspective the key stat for me is the age of the winner together with the state of the ground. It appears the older horses are more suited when it's heavy ground. Of course the ground tomorrow is good to soft so I'm swayed towards the younger horses who are likely to have more toe come the closing stages (over 4m 1f!!)
My main pick is Knockanrawley - he's a young stayer on the upgrade (won lto), and I think he can handle the 7lbs rise in the weights. His trainer is in flying form too.
I'm going to save on Beforeall. He looked like he was just hitting form at Sandown lto after two disappointing efforts this season. He's only 2lbs above his last winning mark and his jockey's 5lbs claim is a handy allowance. My main concern is all his winning form has been in smaller fields versus what he encounters tomorrow (18 run).
Betbright Chase - 3.45 Kempton
I've worked this race down to a shortlist of three:
- Tap Night - well handicapped, classy individual, who's trainer is in fine form as evidenced by Lie Forrit at Haydock last week. He has the right man onboard if he shows any tendency to duck the issue and the 3m trip should be ok.
- Le Reve - has a cracking record going right handed, on the upgrade and has just about the ideal profile for this race.
- Ballinvarrig - again seems to favour going right handed. Won over c+d earlier in the season and was noted staying on lto over 2m5f at Ascot. His trainer's form had a slight lull around the time of the Ascot run but he is back amongst the winners again recently.
I'm loathe to bet three in a race but ultimately it's all about treating each race individually to find a profitable strategy. I think in this case it's worthwhile betting all three (maybe even the tricast!!).
Selections Summary
2.55 Newcastle
Knockanrawley - 0.75pts win 12/1 hills (4th)
Beforeall - 0.25pts each way 16/1 skybet (10th)
3.45 Kempton
Tap Night - 0.5pts win 10/1 hills (UR)
Le Reve - 0.25pts win 9/1 hills (2nd)
Ballinvarrig - 0.25pts win 16/1 lads (8th)
Eider Chase - 2.55 Newcastle
Reviewing this race from a trends perspective the key stat for me is the age of the winner together with the state of the ground. It appears the older horses are more suited when it's heavy ground. Of course the ground tomorrow is good to soft so I'm swayed towards the younger horses who are likely to have more toe come the closing stages (over 4m 1f!!)
My main pick is Knockanrawley - he's a young stayer on the upgrade (won lto), and I think he can handle the 7lbs rise in the weights. His trainer is in flying form too.
I'm going to save on Beforeall. He looked like he was just hitting form at Sandown lto after two disappointing efforts this season. He's only 2lbs above his last winning mark and his jockey's 5lbs claim is a handy allowance. My main concern is all his winning form has been in smaller fields versus what he encounters tomorrow (18 run).
Betbright Chase - 3.45 Kempton
I've worked this race down to a shortlist of three:
- Tap Night - well handicapped, classy individual, who's trainer is in fine form as evidenced by Lie Forrit at Haydock last week. He has the right man onboard if he shows any tendency to duck the issue and the 3m trip should be ok.
- Le Reve - has a cracking record going right handed, on the upgrade and has just about the ideal profile for this race.
- Ballinvarrig - again seems to favour going right handed. Won over c+d earlier in the season and was noted staying on lto over 2m5f at Ascot. His trainer's form had a slight lull around the time of the Ascot run but he is back amongst the winners again recently.
I'm loathe to bet three in a race but ultimately it's all about treating each race individually to find a profitable strategy. I think in this case it's worthwhile betting all three (maybe even the tricast!!).
Selections Summary
2.55 Newcastle
Knockanrawley - 0.75pts win 12/1 hills (4th)
Beforeall - 0.25pts each way 16/1 skybet (10th)
3.45 Kempton
Tap Night - 0.5pts win 10/1 hills (UR)
Le Reve - 0.25pts win 9/1 hills (2nd)
Ballinvarrig - 0.25pts win 16/1 lads (8th)
The Longer Shot - Introduction
Welcome to The Longer Shot, a blog on the sport of Horse Racing.
Here you will find a mix of betting selections, views on current issues affecting the sport, and some racing stories from days gone by. Perhaps even a short book review or two thrown in for good measure as well
I'll post as and when time dictates but selections will tend towards towards weekend racing and the high class midweek festivals.
In keeping with the name, The Longer Shot, don't expect any short priced favourites around here!
I'll be putting up bigger priced selections, say in the region of 10/1 and above. They may be potential improvers in the big weekend handicaps or perhaps a horse that hasn't performed to the best of its ability in recent times (and I feel conditions are more in its favour today).
Basically anything I think is value and has been missed by the crowd.
My selections will generally come from the following areas:
Trends
Profiling
Trainer Form
Hot Form Races
Ratings
I use a few different sources for analysing the form and I'll go into more detail on these as the blog progresses.
Whilst I'll try to explain my reasoning for all selections don't expect war and peace on any selections....time is of the essence!
Finally, I'll start with a bank of 100 points. Typical bets will be 0.5pts to 1 point. I'm not a huge fan of each way betting but on occasions it's the smarter wager. On those occasions I'll bet a selection win and place.
So that's the intro's over....next up is the first blog....hopefully this coming weekend.
To contact me please email TheLongerShot@gmail.com or add your comments below.
Thanks,
The Longer Shot
Here you will find a mix of betting selections, views on current issues affecting the sport, and some racing stories from days gone by. Perhaps even a short book review or two thrown in for good measure as well
I'll post as and when time dictates but selections will tend towards towards weekend racing and the high class midweek festivals.
In keeping with the name, The Longer Shot, don't expect any short priced favourites around here!
I'll be putting up bigger priced selections, say in the region of 10/1 and above. They may be potential improvers in the big weekend handicaps or perhaps a horse that hasn't performed to the best of its ability in recent times (and I feel conditions are more in its favour today).
Basically anything I think is value and has been missed by the crowd.
My selections will generally come from the following areas:
Trends
Profiling
Trainer Form
Hot Form Races
Ratings
I use a few different sources for analysing the form and I'll go into more detail on these as the blog progresses.
Whilst I'll try to explain my reasoning for all selections don't expect war and peace on any selections....time is of the essence!
Finally, I'll start with a bank of 100 points. Typical bets will be 0.5pts to 1 point. I'm not a huge fan of each way betting but on occasions it's the smarter wager. On those occasions I'll bet a selection win and place.
So that's the intro's over....next up is the first blog....hopefully this coming weekend.
To contact me please email TheLongerShot@gmail.com or add your comments below.
Thanks,
The Longer Shot
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