Saturday 21st March 2015

Selections Summary

3.20 Gowran Park
Malt Gem 0.5pts win 10/1

3.35 Bangor
Al Co 0.25pts ew 20/1

2.35 Newbury
Tara Mist 0.5pts win 10/1

3.45 Newbury
Golden Doyen 0.5pts win 9/1

Friday 20th March 2015 - Results Update and Cheltenham Review

Results Update

Sat 22 Feb 2015
Staked = 2.25pts  Returns = 0  Daily P&L = (2.25)Pts 
Running P&L = (2.25)Pts

Sat 7 Mar 2015
Staked = 1.66pts Returns = 0 P&L = (1.66)Pts
Running P&L = (3.91)Pts

Tues 10 Mar 2015
Staked = 6.41pts Returns = 2.64Pts  P&L = (3.77)Pts
Running P&L = (7.68)Pts

Weds 11 Mar 2015
Staked = 6.66pts Returns = 15.21Pts  P&L = 8.55Pts
Running P&L = 0.87Pts

Thu 12 Mar 2015
Staked = 6.08pts Returns = 1.81Pts  P&L = (4.27)Pts
Running P&L = (3.40)Pts

Fri 13 Mar 2015
Staked = 7.33pts Returns = 6.45Pts  P&L = (0.88)Pts
Running P&L = (4.28)Pts

Cheltenham Review

I feel a tad unlucky to be coming out of the festival staring at a loss.  I'll accept that plenty of selections were advised and that obviously dilutes the profits / increases the losses.  However I had numerous places to suggest I was only one or two results away from going my way and a profit would have been secured.  I'm happy enough with my approach to the big festivals, the racing is so competitive that value selections are plentiful at decent odds and it's relatively easy to get on with various bookies in solid markets.

To begin with the wins....the biggest priced winner at 28/1 was Qualando in the Fred Winter.  I thought he fitted the trends fairly neatly and was overpriced accordingly.  He stuck on gamely and looks the type to improve when going chasing.

I also struck with Martello Tower in the Albert Bartlett (nice BOG drift from 10/1 to 14/1) and Windsor Park (5/1) in the Neptune.  3 winners in 4 days makes it a long week but we are betting at big odds so longish losing streaks are to be expected.  That's why I don't mind betting a few selections in one race.  If the hard work has been put in to study the race and the value is there I don't mind betting more than one selection. Winning selections breed confidence, and confidence is a key attribute when betting against the crowd on the longer shots.

Onto the places....and there's plenty...some were not beat far, others never really look like winning in all honesty.

Some honourable mentions then....

Shaneshill 2nd (12/1)
Josses Hill 3rd (14/1)
Grand Jesture 2nd (28/1)
Horizontal Speed 4th (16/1)
Zabana 2nd (33/1)
Rawnaq 3rd (25/1)
Noble Endeavour 2nd (20/1)
Sort It Out 2nd (14/1)

And a few others too......!  I'd say Zabana in Coral Cup was the most frustrating, he ran a cracker to be 2nd and I was on him win only!!

Onto tomorrow...I'll update the blog in the morning if there are any selections.

Friday 13th March 2015

1.30

Petite Parisienne 0.50pts win 11/1

Top Notch 0.50pts win 8/1 (2nd)

 

2.05

Sort It Out 0.50pts win 14/1 (2nd)

Aso 0.25pts ew 50/1

 

2.40

Definitly Red 0.33pts win 33/1

Martello Tower 0.33pts win 10/1 (WON @ 14/1)

Caracci Apache 0.33pts win 16/1

 

3.20

Road to Riches 0.5pts win 12/1

Sam Winner 0.25pts ew 25/1

 

4.00

No Loose Change 0.25pts ew 20/1

Seventh Sign 0.25pts ew 20/1

 

4.40

Noble Endeavour 0.25pts ew 20/1 (2nd)

MacNicholson 0.25pts ew 28/1

Forthefunofit 0.25pts win 16/1

 

5.20

Blood Cotil 0.5pts win 9/1

Bold Henry 0.25pts win 25/1

Bellenos 0.33pts win 25/1

Thursday 12th March 2015

1.30

Apache Stronghold 0.50pts win 11/2

 

2.05

               

Trustan Times 0.33pts win 20/1

Sybarite 0.33pts win 20/1

The Tourard Man 0.33pts win 25/1

Knight of Noir 0.33pts win 25/1

 

2.40       

Taquin Du Seuil 0.33pts win 12/1

Johns Spirit 0.33pts win 10/1

 

3.20       

Whisper 0.66pts win 10/1

Saphir Du Rheu 0.33pts win 13/2 (2nd)

 

4.00

Rawnaq 0.25pts ew 25/1 (3rd)

Bally Legend 0.25pts ew 33/1

Buywise 0.25pts win 10/1 (4th)

 

4.40

Benbens 0.33pts win BFSP

The Ould Lad 0.33pts win BFSP

Sixty Something 0.33pts win BFSP

Clondaw Knight 0.33pts win 20/1

 

Wednesday 11th March 2015

1.30

Windsor Park 0.50pts win 5/1 (WON)

Outlander 0.50pts win 9/2

 

2.05

               

Southfield Theatre 0.33pts win 15/2

Wounded Warrior 0.66pts win 14/1

 

2.40       

Zabana 0.25pts win 33/1 (2nd)

Blackmail 0.25pts win 20/1          

Hammersly Lake 0.50pts win 20/1

Marinero 0.25pts win 14/1

Baradari 0.25pts win 16/1

 

3.20       

Sprinter Sacre 0.66pts win 4/1

 

4.00

Quantitativeeasing 0.50pts win 10/1

 

4.40

Qualando 0.33pts ew 28/1 (WON)

Zarib 0.66pts win 12/1

 

5.15       

General Principle 0.33pts win 14/1

Supasundae 0.33pts win 12/1

Stone Hard 0.33pts win 16/1

 

Tuesday 10th March 2015

1.30

Shaneshill  0.5pts win 12/1 (2nd)
Qewy 0.33pts win 14/1

2.05

Josses Hill 0.66pts win 14/1 (3rd)

2.40

Ned Stark 0.33pts win 9/1
Gallant Oscar 0.66pts win 12/1 (3rd)
Grand Jesture 0.33pts ew 28/1 (2nd)

3.20

The New One 0.66pts win 5/1

4.00

Carole’s Spirit 0.33pts win 20/1
L’Unique 0.33pts win 20/1

4.40

Thunder and Roses 0.5pts win 25/1
Ballyculla 0.25pts ew 66/1

5.20

Generous Ransom 0.25pts win 9/1 (3rd)

Horizontal Speed 0.5pts win 16/1 (4th)
Cold March 0.25pts ew 40/1

Saturday 7th March 2015

Minimal time this morning so straight to the action.

3.10 Sandown

A fiercely competive handicap hurdle I've picked out two fancies.  Thistlecrack showed a sparkling turn of foot to win nicely at Ascot last time.  I'm hopeful with a decent pace he'll come there fast and late up the Sandown hill.  I think a stiff 2m will be ideal for him.  My second pick is Meadowcroft Boy.  He ran an eyecatching race at Musselburgh two runs ago.  I'm prepared to forgive a slightly below par run last time at Kelso.  Again I think a fast pace and stiff track will play to his strengths. It's not often A Whillans send one this far south and Jamie Moore is an interesting jockey booking.

 

4.00 Wolverhampton

A tricky handicap but I think Mappin Time is overpriced at 12/1.  He beat Basil Berry last time and is only a lbs worse off versus the 2nd favourite.  Mappin Time goes well at the track, has won in class 2, has a fair draw and his trainer Tim Easterby is in very good form.


Selections Summary

3.10 Sandown
Thistlecrack 0.50 pts win 14/1 (5th)

Meadowcroft Boy 0.33 pts e/w 40/1 5 places (PU)

4.00 Wolves
Mappin Time 0.50 pts win 12/1 (10th)

Sunday 22nd February 2015

No joy with the various selections yesterday.

First up was the Eider Chase and Knockanrawley ran a fine race to finish 4th.  I thought a mile out he was going to kick on and take the race by the scruff of the neck but ultimately he didn't have the staying power of Millborough and Woodford County (with Summery Justice staying on to trouble the winner).  Knockanrawley is only a 7yo with 11 races to date in his career.  It would be no surprise to see him improve with another summer on his back...one to keep an eye on.

Beforeall ran ok, eventually finishing 10th.  He travelled well but I think he is better suited to smaller fields.  I imagine his mark will be dropped 2/3lbs after yesterday's run and he's one to note in the next couple of months.

The Betbright Chase was won very impressively by Rocky Creek.  He was handicapped to run a big race and he most certainly did.  Onto the Grand National for him. 

Tap Night got as far as the third before unseating R Johnson.  Ballinvarrig ran a solid race but probably found yesterday a tad competitive off a mark of 133.  No complaints with the run of Le Reve, he stayed on really well but Rocky Creek was in a different league to the others.  I could see Le Reve back at Sandown for the Whitbread.

I had a few other bets yesterday but only Comeonginger was successful.  Until Midnight, Skidby Mill & Galway Jack all ran decent races but all in all a losing day.

With Cheltenham on the horizon and most of the key "trials" now run I'm going to spend this week analysing some of my favourite festival races.  I'm a sucker for the established handicaps but if there's one lucky race for me it's the RSA Chase.  A race often won by late maturing types who have yet to show their full hand that find improvement for the stamina and jumping test that is the RSA Chase. 

Saturday 21st February 2015

The first selections on the blog - exciting times - a nice winner would boost the confidence and be a nice comfort zone for the betting bank!!

Eider Chase - 2.55 Newcastle

Reviewing this race from a trends perspective the key stat for me is the age of the winner together with the state of the ground.  It appears the older horses are more suited when it's heavy ground.  Of course the ground tomorrow is good to soft so I'm swayed towards the younger horses who are likely to have more toe come the closing stages (over 4m 1f!!)

My main pick is Knockanrawley - he's a young stayer on the upgrade (won lto), and I think he can handle the 7lbs rise in the weights.  His trainer is in flying form too.

I'm going to save on Beforeall.  He looked like he was just hitting form at Sandown lto after two disappointing efforts this season.  He's only 2lbs above his last winning mark and his jockey's 5lbs claim is a handy allowance.  My main concern is all his winning form has been in smaller fields versus what he encounters tomorrow (18 run).

Betbright Chase - 3.45 Kempton

I've worked this race down to a shortlist of three:

 - Tap Night - well handicapped, classy individual, who's trainer is in fine form as evidenced by Lie Forrit at Haydock last week.  He has the right man onboard if he shows any tendency to duck the issue and the 3m trip should be ok.

- Le Reve - has a cracking record going right handed, on the upgrade and has just about the ideal profile for this race.

- Ballinvarrig - again seems to favour going right handed.  Won over c+d earlier in the season and was noted staying on lto over 2m5f at Ascot.  His trainer's form had a slight lull around the time of the Ascot run but he is back amongst the winners again recently.

I'm loathe to bet three in a race but ultimately it's all about treating each race individually to find a profitable strategy.  I think in this case it's worthwhile betting all three (maybe even the tricast!!).

Selections Summary

2.55 Newcastle
Knockanrawley - 0.75pts win 12/1 hills (4th)
Beforeall - 0.25pts each way 16/1 skybet (10th)

3.45 Kempton
Tap Night - 0.5pts win 10/1 hills (UR)
Le Reve - 0.25pts win 9/1 hills (2nd)
Ballinvarrig - 0.25pts win 16/1 lads (8th)







 

The Longer Shot - Introduction

Welcome to The Longer Shot, a blog on the sport of Horse Racing.

Here you will find a mix of betting selections, views on current issues affecting the sport, and some racing stories from days gone by.  Perhaps even a short book review or two thrown in for good measure as well

I'll post as and when time dictates but selections will tend towards towards weekend racing and the high class midweek festivals.

In keeping with the name, The Longer Shot, don't expect any short priced favourites around here!

I'll be putting up bigger priced selections, say in the region of 10/1 and above.  They may be potential improvers in the big weekend handicaps or perhaps a horse that hasn't performed to the best of its ability in recent times (and I feel conditions are more in its favour today).

Basically anything I think is value and has been missed by the crowd. 

My selections will generally come from the following areas:

Trends
Profiling
Trainer Form
Hot Form Races
Ratings

I use a few different sources for analysing the form and I'll go into more detail on these as the blog progresses.

Whilst I'll try to explain my reasoning for all selections don't expect war and peace on any selections....time is of the essence!

Finally, I'll start with a bank of 100 points.  Typical bets will be 0.5pts to 1 point.  I'm not a huge fan of each way betting but on occasions it's the smarter wager.  On those occasions I'll bet a selection win and place.

So that's the intro's over....next up is the first blog....hopefully this coming weekend.

To contact me please email TheLongerShot@gmail.com or add your comments below.

Thanks,

The Longer Shot